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Special Article

Economic Survey 2015-16


*Economy to clock more than 7 per cent growth this fiscal. Expects GDP Growth Rate for 2016-17 in the range of 7  to 7.75 per cent

*Predicts over 8 per cent growth in next couple of years as there is macro-economic stability now.

*With reforms in key areas, there is reduction in macro-vulnerability.

*Economy will continue to weather global sluggishness with resilience. Despite difficult global environment, India is  likely to be the fastest growing major economy in the world in 2016,

*Outlook of multilateral institutions positive for India  

*Amidst gloomy international economic landscape, India stands as a haven of stability.

*Increase in wages and benefits recommended by the 7th Pay Commission are not likely to destabilize prices and will  have little impact on inflation

*CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5 per cent in 2016-17, Expects RBI to meet 5 per cent inflation target by March 2017

*4 R (Recognition, Recapitalization, Resolution, and Reform) required to   comprehensively resolve the twin balance sheet challenge of Public SectorBanks (PSBs) and some corporate houses.

*Fiscal deficit target of 3.9% for 2015-16 seems achievable. However, coming year expected to be a challenging one from the fiscal point of view 

*Better off taking the benefit of subsidies; recommends interventions and rectification of anomalies 

*Services sector remains the key driver of economic growth contributing almost 66.1% in 2015-16 

*Trade deficit declines to 106.8 billion US dollars in April-January 2015-16 from 119.6 billion US dollars in corresponding period 2014-15.

*Current Account Deficit (CAD) limits at 1.4 percent of gross domestic product during April-September, 2015-16

*Foreign exchange reserves stand at 351.5 billion US dollars as on 5th February, 2016

*Indian Economy needs to create enough “good” Safe productive well-paying Jobs to exploit its demographic dividend and to meet the growing aspirations of those entering the labour force. 

*GST rollout to mark an unprecedented reforms measure in the modern global tax history

*Proposes widening tax net from 5.5 percent of earning individuals to more than 20 percent, reasonable taxation of the better-off individuals with income from real estate and agriculture, phasing out of the tax exemption raj.

*Higher property tax rates to check speculation in real estate

*Free trade agreements leading to increased imports and Exports 

*2015 was a landmark year for India in climate change initiatives; India plays important role in adoption of Paris agreement and launch of international solar alliance 

*Highlights need for more investment in human capital, expresses concern at declining educational outcomes, emphasizes importance of improving efficiency in delivery of services in the health sector. 

*Labour force participation rate higher in rural areas than urban areas, significantly lower for females than males.

*Women account for 57% of employment given under MGNREGA in the current financial year.

*1.75 lakh rural youth trained under Deen Dayal Upadhyaya Grameen Kaushalya Yojana during 2015-16

*Addressing the twin balance sheet challenge, economic survey emphasizes on recalibration of growth expectations;

*Positive changes sweeping power sector. Impressive strides made in the power sector in the last two years: addition  of record generation capacity, moves towards one market in power, reform of discoms and development of    renewable energy 

*Time is ripe for industries to absorb excess generation capacity through “Open Access” to energize “Make in India”

*Suggests possibility of achieving reasonably greater progressivity in tariff  structures with lower tariffs for the poor

*New paradigm of surplus power sets stage for continuing reforms for powering “One India”

*The chakravyuha challenge: Ease to enter, barriers to exit; Indian economy making great strides in removing  barriers to entry for firms, talent, and technology but less in relation to exit 

*Several initiatives taken would help transforming infrastructure sector; results achieving & sustaining higher economic growth 

*Indian equity market relatively resilient compared to other major emerging market economies.

*Financial inclusion proceeding apace under PMJD yojana 

*Emphasizes that JAM Trinity –jan dhan, aadhaar, mobile- can help government  to implement large-scale,  technology-enabled and real-time Direct Benefit Transfers (DBTs) to improve economic lives of India’s poor.

*Agriculture Sector needs a transformation to ensure sustainable livelihoods for the farmers and food security 

*Emphasizes for improved productivity in agriculture

*Disbursal of subsidy on fertilizers should shift to DBT

*Fixed amount of subsidy in the case of phosphorous and potassium fertilizer  subsidy

*There needs to be a shift to demand-driven agricultural advisory services

*In order to provide Food Security, in the current agriculture scenario, India has to focus on supplies which are timely  and uninterrupted and affordable for the poor 

*57 per cent of households had calorie intake below 2160 kcal/consumer unit/day

*Average protein intake per capita per day rises steadily

*India has the second highest number of undernourished people which warrants immediate attention

*Percentage share of horticulture output in agriculture is more than 33 per cent