Mission Mausam: Driving Innovations in Weather Forecasting

As human-induced climate change accelerates and extreme weather events become increasingly frequent, India's Mission Mausam has emerged as a groundbreaking initiative to revolutionise weather forecasting and climate preparedness. Approved by the Union Cabinet on September 11, 2024, with a budget of Rs. 2,000 crores, this ambitious project is designed to make India a 'weather-ready and climate-smart' nation by 2026. Spearheaded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), the mission has necessitated significant advancements in research and development (R&D) and the integration of cutting-edge technologies, marking a transformative leap for Indian meteorology.

The need for Mission Mausam stems from India's vulnerability to a wide range of severe weather phenomena-floods, cyclones, droughts, and heatwaves-that threaten lives, livelihoods, and economic stability. To meet these challenges head-on, the mission focusses on advancing next-generation weather surveillance technologies. Key requirements include the deployment of

50 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs), 60 Radio Wind Stations (RWS), and precision instruments like radio-meters and wind profilers. These technologies will improve atmospheric observation, enhancing both spatial and temporal forecasting accuracy. Additionally, the mission integrates Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) with traditional numerical models, creating systems capable of processing vast datasets in real-time to predict extreme weather events with greater precision.

The emphasis on R&D under Mission Mausam will not only strengthen India's scientific under-standing of atmospheric processes but also drive home-grown innovations in weather forecasting. Collaboration between institutes like the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and private partners will foster technological breakthroughs. By 2026, this enhanced network of instruments and models is expected to significantly elevate India's ability to detect, analyse, and respond to weather systems, ensuring that vulnerable communities receive timely, life-saving information.

Transformative Weather Technologies

At the heart of Mission Mausam lies the integration of advanced technology to improve weather observation and prediction. Over the next two years, India will establish a comprehensive net-work of instruments, including:

·       50 Doppler Weather Radars (DWRs): These radars will provide detailed information on rainfall intensity, wind speeds, and severe weather conditions. Doppler radars are crucial for tracking storms and predicting heavy rainfall, which is critical in flood-prone areas.

·       60 Radio Sonde/ Radio Wind (RS/RW) Stations: These stations will gather valuable data on atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind patterns, helping meteorologists understand weather patterns more precisely.

·       100 Disdrometers and 10 Wind Profilers: Disdrometers will measure raindrop size distribution and rainfall rate, while wind profilers will provide real-time data on wind velocity at various altitudes. These observations will further refine weather models.

·       25 Radiometers: These instruments will measure the intensity of electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere, providing key data for satellite weather forecasting systems.

·       An Urban Testbed and an Ocean Research Station: The establishment of these stations will help India study micro-climates in urban areas and coastal environments, both of which are highly susceptible to climate change.

By March 2026, this wider network of weather instruments is expected to be fully operational. According to Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Science, this will mark a turning point for India's ability to predict extreme weather events more accurately and provide life-saving information to at-risk communities.

Enhanced Forecasting with AI and Machine Learning

One of the most exciting aspects of Mission Mausam is the integration of AI and ML technologies into weather forecasting models. Traditionally, weather forecasting has relied on physics-based numerical models that simulate the atmosphere's behaviour. However, these models often face limitations due to the immense complexity of atmospheric processes and the limitations in computational power.

Mission Mausam plans to overcome these challenges by blending traditional models with data-driven AI/ML approaches. AI/ML algorithms will help process vast amounts of atmospheric data from multiple sources- such as radars, satellites, and sensors- and provide real-time insights for better decision-making. This fusion of technologies promises to offer more accurate predictions of weather phenomena, particularly in predicting the onset and intensity of events like cyclones and monsoons.

Capacity Building and Global Collaboration

To ensure the long-term success of Mission Mausam, capacity building will be a key focus. India aims to train a new generation of meteorologists, engineers, and data scientists to work with the latest weather forecasting technologies. Through partnerships with national and international institutes, the mission will also promote collaborative research and development, enhancing India's global standing in weather and climate sciences.

The three main implementing institutions- the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)-will collaborate closely with other MoES institutes such as the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) and the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT). Additionally, academia and private industry partners will contribute to R&D efforts, ensuring continuous innovation in weather forecasting technology.

Impact on Society and Economy

Beyond the technological advancements, Mission Mausam is expected to generate consi-derable social and economic benefits. Better weather forecasts will empower farmers with timely information on rainfall and temperature, helping them make informed decisions about sowing and irrigation. Fishermen will benefit from accurate coastal weather predictions, which will ensure safer navigation and better yield. Moreover, industries reliant on weather-sensitive operations-such as agriculture, aviation, construction, and disaster management-will see improved risk management and operational efficiency.

A Path towards a Climate-Resilient Future

With India taking concrete steps towards improving its weather and climate forecasting systems, Mission Mausam is poised to become a landmark initiative. As Dr. Ravichandran noted, "No weather system in the country will go undetected." By deploying state-of-the-art instruments, inte-grating AI/ML in forecasting, and fostering collaborative research, India is setting the foundation for a more weather-ready and climate-smart nation. This mission is not only about building technological infrastructure but also about ensuring that India is prepared to face the growing challenges of climate change, ultimately safe-guarding the lives and livelihoods of millions.

As Mission Mausam unfolds over the next two years, it is expected to set new benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate resilience, marking a pivotal moment in India's journey towards becoming a leader in atmospheric science and weather prediction.

Interview

Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra

Director General of Meteorology

India Meteorological Department (IMD), Govt. of India

Q. How will Mission Mausam enhance weather forecasting accuracy and timeliness?

A. Mission Mausam, an ambitious initiative approved by the Government of India, aims to improve weather forecasting by upgrading observational, modelling, computing, forecasting, and information dissemination systems. This will be achieved through the deployment of 50 Doppler Radars, 60 Radio Wind Stations, 25 wind profilers, and 25 radiometers across the country, enabling India to meet global standards. With Mission Mausam, weather forecast accuracy is expected to improve by 10% over current levels.

Q. How will critical weather information reach last-mile users and vulnerable communities?

A. Mission Mausam will ensure critical weather information reaches last-mile users and vulnerable communities by generating forecasts at the Panchayat level using global models with a resolution of 5-12 km. Regional models will operate at a 1 km resolution, enabling location-specific warnings. Mobile applications such as Mausam, Meghdoot, and Damini will deliver forecasts related to weather, agriculture, and lightning. Additionally, Panchayat-level information will be disseminated through mobile apps, media, and social media platforms.

Q. How will Mission Mausam help reduce flood risks in India through enhanced weather forecasting and disaster management?

A. Mission Mausam will help mitigate flood risks by addressing urban flooding through specialised modelling systems supported by high-resolution observational networks. In hilly regions, improved observational systems will enable the detection of small-scale phenomena, facilitating early warnings for landslides and floods. Furthermore, Mission Mausam will address coastal and river flooding in collaboration with other agencies, such as the Geological Survey of India and the Central Water Commission.

(Contributed by: Science Media Communication Cell, CSIR-NIScPR, New Delhi)